Saturday Nov. 27: After 10 days of behind the scenes discussions, arm-twisting and threats ICCAT moves into the final day of the 2010 meeting today with all eyes on the outcome of bluefin tuna deliberations. Insiders are looking to a status quo quota of 1850 mt for the western stock, but the outcome for eastern bluefin seems more up in the air. The current 13,500 mt quota is emerging as the likely upper limit while some wait to see it the EU will make any move to go lower. Complicating the issue is hard pressure from Tunisia, Egypt and Libya to gain a larger share of the eastern stock allocation.
This formal allocation sunsets this year and a not so subtle threat from Libya to let it lapse and open up an international derby race to catch what can be caught before the total quota is reached - a move that would radically destabilize the fishery - is seen as a gambit to wrest quota shares from the EU. Complicating matters within the EU is the fact that France faces a 1500 mt payback penalty for previous overages - a penalty that would leave that nation with only 500 mt to divide amongst its large fleet.
While there still exists the potential for further action on bigeye tuna and sharks bluefin is center stage and there are 10 hours left for the drama to unfold. My guess? I think the quota will be reduced to 11,500 mt and there will be no action on proposals to close the Mediterranean and Gulf of Mexico spawning grounds to all bluefin harvest. If Libya doesn't get concessions from the EU and they allow the present allocation formula to sunset the fishery will go toxic next year and quota overages - reported and illegal catches - will again skyrocket.
So stay tuned . . . .
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